Evaluating the Regional Coastal Impact Potential to Erosion and Inundation Caused by Extreme Weather Events and Tsunamis

Hurricanes as the main drivers of coastal erosion and inundation are frequent in the Caribbean region even under consideration of projected continuation of global warming. A GIS-based model for the island Martinique was developed that evaluates the sensitivity of the coastal areas to erosion, flooding and inundation. This includes the analysis of the potential impact area extension. The results are illustrated in sensitivity and risk area maps for the Martinique coast. They revealed a high impact potential along low lying coastal parts but also along those coastal stripes with erosive rocks. The maps serve as base for further vulnerability studies. The overall aim was to develop an appropriate methodology that is easily applicable and transferable to other coasts.coastal zones, tsunami

Regional spatial planning assessments for adaptation to accelerated sea level rise - an application to Martinique’s coastal zone

Accelerated sea level rise and hurricanes are increasingly influencing human coastal activities. With respect to the projected continuation of accelerated sea level rise and global warming one must count with additional expenses for adaptation strategies along the coasts. On the mountainous island Martinique the majority of settlements are situated along the coast almost at sea level. But potential rises in sea level and its impacts are not addressed in coastal management, even if saltwater intrusion and coastal erosion with increasing offshore loss of sediment are locally already a severe problem. Following article deals with the evaluation of human vulnerability to accelerated sea level rise on the Martinique coast. In addition, it assesses the possible effects of sea level rise on the island for future regional planning purposes spatially. The actual situation and legislation measures for coastal zone management of the island are described and sea level rise response strategies are discussed. This paper sees itself as recommendation of action not only for Martinique.GIS Modelling, Spatial Analysis, Caribbean, Climate Change, Coastal Zone Management

Wetland distribution modelling for optimal land use options in Europe

This spatial study contributes to a modelling project that, in combination with biodiversity analyses and an economic model, evaluates potentials to preserve existing habitats, to restore formerly native habitats, as well as to create non-native managed habitats with respect to freshwater wetlands of the EU. This paper deals with the methodological development of the wetland distribution model and illustration of its results. Through a GIS-based model the extent of existing wetland distribution is visualised. Additionally, potential convertible sites are modelled for (re-) creation of wetland biotopes.wetlands, land use

Evaluation of coastal squeeze and beach reduction and its consequences for the Caribbean island Martinique

Based on a spatial model, the Martinique beaches and coastal wetlands are examined to identify the risks of coastal squeeze. In many cases coastal development prevents coasts from adapting by shifting landward. Also tourism infrastructure augments the vulnerability of beach reduction and mangrove squeeze. More than 70% of all Martinique beaches and 29% of mangrove forests are highly endangered by coastal squeeze if sea level rises. The majority of coastal constructions and especially tourist hotels are built at heights between 1 and 10 m above the present sea level and therefore also within the zone at risk to flooding and erosion. Spatial analysis based on a conducted GIS model is carried out that evaluates the tourist destinations most vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise. If sea level rises and beach reduction becomes an increasing problem the attractiveness of Martinique beaches as tourist destination is likely to decline.Caribbean, Lesser Antilles, Regional Planning, GIS, Climate Change, Coastal Change, Erosion, Inundation

SPATIAL ANALYSIS AS TOOL FOR SENSITIVITY ASSESSMENT OF SEA LEVEL RISE IMPACTS ON MARTINIQUE

Sea level in the Caribbean region is expected to rise approximately10-20 cm by 2025. In some areas of Martinique coastal erosion and saltwater intrusion are already a severe problem. Because the island has a mountainous character, the majority of its settlements are situated along the coast almost at sea level. Considerations and strategies for dealing with potential sea level rise and its consequences for Martinique do not exist. This part of a detailed case study concentrates on the evaluation of sea level rise impacts on Martinique. It is going to test the suitability of spatial data for impact scenarios at a regional scale. Also, it conceptualises the possible effects of sea level rise on the island for future regional planning purposes. An elevation model is created that visualises the low-lying coastal areas and a second model evaluates the sensitivity of each coastal segment to erosion, flooding and inundation. The resulting map distinguishes between coastal parts at high, medium, or low risk to sea level rise impacts. Results show that nearly three quarters of the Martinique coast are highly sensitive to flooding and erosion.Caribbean, Lesser Antilles, Regional Planning, GIS, Climate Change, Coastal Change, Erosion, Inundation

Potential impacts on important bird habitats in Eiderstedt (Schleswig-Holstein) caused by agricultural land use changes

Agricultural land on the Eiderstedt peninsula in Schleswig-Holstein (Germany) is traditionally dominated by extensively used grassland. These grassland areas are home to many (endangered) bird species, making Eiderstedt one of the prime bird habitats at the West coast of Schleswig-Holstein. Plans exist to convert large shares of grassland to arable farm land to grow crops needed in an intensified dairy production and for biofuels. In this study, three possible scenarios of agricultural land use change on Eiderstedt in the next couple of decades are developed. Using a GIS the possible impacts of such conversions on breeding bird populations of four key species are determined. The results indicate that an increase of arable farm land to approximately two thirds of the whole agricultural area drastically reduces suitable bird habitat, thus considerably diminishing the number of breeding pairs supported by the environment. The ornithological impact is greatest if conversion takes place throughout Eiderstedt extending from already existing areas of arable farm land. But even though the reduction in suitable breeding habitat is less pronounced in the other scenarios, every one of them induces a severe pressure on populations of meadowbirds that rely on habitat on Eiderstedt for successful reproduction.land use

The European Forest and Agriculture Optimisation Model -- EUFASOM

Land use is a key factor to social wellbeing and has become a major component in political negotiations. This paper describes the mathematical structure of the European Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model. The model represents simultaneously observed resource and technological heterogeneity, global commodity markets, and multiple environmental qualities. Land scarcity and land competition between traditional agriculture, forests, nature reserves, pastures, and bioenergy plantations is explicitly captured. Environmental change, technological progress, and policies can be investigated in parallel. The model is well-suited to estimate competitive economic potentials of land based mitigation, leakage, and synergies and trade-offs between multiple environmental objectives.Land Use Change Optimization, Resource Scarcity, Market Competition, Welfare Maximization, Bottom-up Partial Equilibrium Analysis, Agricultural Externality Mitigation, Forest Dynamics, Global Change Adaptation, Environmental Policy Simulation, Integrated Assessment, Mathematical Programming, GAMS